Part 4 - How are Albany Schools impacted by More Housing?

How might construction of more housing units, up to the allocation which Albany must be able to accommodate, impact Albany schools?  A concern for some residents and parents is whether there is room in Albany Unified School District (AUSD) schools for more students.  This is an important concern that reflects the community’s commitment to a premier school system.  
 
The first three sections of this article discuss broad assessments of three sources of additional students in Albany schools. For more details and calculations for each source, please read sections four to seven, beginning with Albany's Housing Growth 1990-2010. Section eight is a summary.
 
1.  Impact of New Construction Housing 

Of the three sources of increased enrollment, a realistic estimate of new construction is 80 housing units and 36 more students, over eight years.  This is consistent with the 200 NET new housing units built since 1990.  A projection of 160 more housing units through 2022 (expected remainder of Albany’s regional housing allocation) would provide about 72 more resident students within the K-12 system.
 
2. Impact of Average Number of Residents per Housing Unit

From 2000 to 2010 the average number of residents per housing unit rose from 2.34 to 2.49.  This increase leads to about 330 more resident students at AUSD.   The ratio changed because there was a big population jump in 2010, with a small increase in new housing.  Basically, there are more people and students living in housing units that existed before 2000.  Some of these older housing units were enlarged to accommodate families with children during this period.
 
3. Impact of Policies for Inter-District Transfers of Non-Resident Students

471 non-resident students were enrolled in AUSD schools (in 2012-13) on inter-district transfers.  Admission of non-resident students is an established practice by the Board of Education.  73 new non-resident transfers were admitted in 2012-13, including 35 to elementary schools.  Once admitted, it is likely a transferred student will remain in AUSD until high school graduation. The total inter-district transfer level has declined from 644 in 2005/06. 

 
4.  Albany's Housing Growth 1990-2010

Census data show from 1990 to 2010 there were about 200 NET new construction housing units, to 7401 units, a 2.7% increase.   In 2000 there were 7000 units, due to the timing UC Village units' demolition and reconstruction

Table 4-1 in Albany's Housing Element identifies only two units built since 2010.  2014 is the last year of this Housing Element cycle, and it is likely there will be few more housing units built before the 2015 – 2022 housing cycle begins.

For the 2015-22 Housing Element, Albany's Regional Housing Allocation is 335.  If the UC Belmont Village project goes forward, it will add 175 units of senior housing, leaving a balance of 160 units which might house school-age children.  There is no guarantee that another 160, or even one more, housing unit will be built. However, the Housing Element must show Albany is able to accommodate 160 more.  Albany's rate of additional new housing 1990-2010 has been 10 per year, which suggests it will add 80 more within 8 years.  But to show the impact of the full allocated amount, let's assume another 160 units are built through 2022.  At .45 school age children per unit, that's 72 more students, arriving over 8 years.

5. Albany's Population Growth since 2000

From 2000 to 2010 population grew 12.7% from 16,444 to 18,539.   Most of these additional residents are living in homes built before 2000. Thus, the 2010 Census shows a substantial increase in the average residents per housing unit in Albany. In 2000 that average was 2.34; in 2010 it was 2.49.  The .15 increase in average residents per housing unit accounts for about 1050 more residents, from 2000 to 2010, in the 7000 housing units that existed in 2000 (.15 times 7000.)  The remaining almost 1000 new population are in the 400 additional housing units on the 2010 Census, at 2.49 residents per housing. 

Albany resident students also increased along with the general population increases.  Capital Projects Management (CPM), a firm which prepared a demographic analysis for AUSD in 2007, calculated resident students per housing unit at .405 in 2006/7.  To calculate the 2012/13 students per housing unit ratio, we determine resident students by subtracting the non-residents count (471 - from the 2012/13 AUSD report on Non-Resident students) from total AUSD enrollment on EdData - 3803.  This results in 3332 resident students.  3332 divided by 7400 housing units is .45 students per housing unit in 2012/13.  The difference of .045 more students per housing unit from 2006/7 to 2012/13 is about 330 students.  The average number of residents per housing unit is likely to increase as Albany homes occupied by one or two residents adults become homes to larger families.
  
6. Non-resident students and BOE policies
 
For decades the BOE has admitted non-resident students via inter-district transfers. These additional admissions allow AUSD to optimize State funding, which provides the largest contribution to the district’s operations, and enables increases in course offerings to students.  State funding is based on enrolled students' average daily attendance.   
 
At the time that the BOE adopted policies to admit non-resident students, there was significant flexibility to increase or reduce acceptances each year.  But in the last several years, new State mandates, and the Alameda County Board of Education’s interpretation of those mandates, mean that non-resident students  typically remain in AUSD through high school graduation.
 
BOE continues to admit new non-resident students as shown in the table below for school year 2012/13.  "NR" refers to Non-Resident student; "Res" is Albany resident; "ACC" is Albany Children's Center where there is a kindergarten class; "McGreg" is the McGregor continuation high school; "NEW NR" refers to newly admitted NonResident students.

Table 1: AUSD 2012/13 Students by resident status and by school            

               New NR     All NR    Res     TOTAL 

Cornell       15             41      549       590

Marin           4             20      494       514

OceanVw    15             30      569       599

Middle       25            141      749       890

High         13            228       934     1162

McGreg                      10        18         28

ACC           1              1          19         20

TOTAL      73           471      3332     3803

Source: compiled by DHWG from AUSD Presentation of 2012/13 NonResident Students, and from EdData for school enrollment totals and (backed out) resident counts
 
7. Demographic Projections and Facilities Capacity
 
How many students can Albany schools hold?  Public school systems must serve all resident students, despite uncertainty about future numbers of resident students.  Boards of Education sometimes contract for demographic projections to aid planning.  AUSD contracted for a demographic analysis by Capital Project Management (CPM) dated 2007.  That analysis projected student population to 2016-17, and compared it to "Facility Capacity".

Facility Capacity indicates how many students can be served by existing classrooms.  The CPM report noted that for long range planning AUSD used the State's maximum students per classroom.  These maximums vary by grade.  State capacity for grades K-5 is 25 per classroom; grades 6-12 is 27 per classroom; special education is 12 per classroom; continuation school is 15 per classroom.  Based on these maximums, as of 2006/7 the total AUSD facilities' capacity was 3,842 students. That year, there were 3640 students, 3,017  residents and 623 non-residents. 

In CPM’s report, the 2007 facility capacities were K-5 = 1772; AMS 6-8 = 849 (which reflects four classrooms at McGregor used by AMS students); HS = 1221.   A Sept 2010 report to the BOE on facilities capacity showed increased capacity, at Class-Size Reduction levels, for the High school and Middle school, to 1366 and 908 respectively and shown below.  The 2014 Facilities Master Plan shows a total of 4094 capacity, with changes for several sites.  Because the most recent year with resident separate from non-resident enrollment is 2012/13, those data are used in  table 2.      

Table 2: 2012/13 Enrollments & Facilities' Capacities
              All NR      Res     TOTAL enrolled   Facility Capacity

K-5              92      1631          1723               1772

Middle       141        749            890                 908

High          238        952          1190               1366          

Total         471      3332           3803               3923

Source: compiled from CPM report and 2012/13 counts

Notes: reconciling with Table 1:

20 kindergarteners at Albany Children's Center added to K-5 line

28 McGregor students added to the High School.

8. Summary of Factors Impacting AUSD Student Population
 

At 471 students, policies for non-resident inter-transfer students are the source of the greatest number of additional students.  That level may keep falling although new admissions continue.  A professional demographic analysis in 2007 concluded that AUSD could control facility capacity with policy for inter-district transfers admissions.

At 330 students, additional students due to increased average of students per housing unit is a source that is likely to continue to increase. 

At 72 students, the projected maximum from future new housing is the smallest impact.  36 is a more realistic expectation.
 
Data sources for this article include the City's January 2014 Housing Element http://albany2035.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Housing-Element-1-22-14-PZ.pdf, an AUSD presentation to the Board on "Inter-District Transfers 2013-13", EdData at http://www.ed-data.k12.ca.us/,  and 2007 and 2010 demographic projections prepared for AUSD BOE: http://www.ausdk12.org/pdf/district/boe/archives/2010-2011//agendas%20and%20packets/09-7-2010_Packet... page 64 , Facilities Master Plan agenda topic on the March 25, 2014 AUSD agenda, http://www.ausdk12.org/ourpages/auto/2013/7/22/40608796/3_25_14%20BOE%20Meeting.pdf, page 38.

Upcoming DHWG articles:

Part 5 What is “Affordable” Housing?

Part 6 What are Albany's Policies and Actions to achieve Housing Production?